The rare time we stay on a bet everyone is “in” on, remember that on a contrarian piece of Blog shit. The big wins require ballsy patience as we are not locals last week we took a hit namely on the EURO. The stimulus somewhere theory still rings true, as we expect European and Japanese markets to ascend higher. However we still remain convinced the cheese stimulus would not have the required affect on Chinese equate. Our FXI has gotten cheaper, why are we short Chinese equities/ they are at year high, buy low sell high. Not to mention they are late to the game as the second largest economy in the world re; stimulus. In many ways china is fucked but when? You see this bleeds into a lager macro political discussion I ought not type, holla. Bottom line is you can’t get half pregnant.
“I think I understand.” Bud Fox to Lou re; abyss Wall St. The GBP short, also got cheaper this past week, we continue to believe the upcoming election will weaken the GBP.
And alas the euro goes higher touching 1.09 briefly, we used this “lame” week of no substantial data to cement recent trends and thus got longer FXE, our now largest holding at 100 contracts equaling in theory short 10,000 shares of this bitch. The June contracts hiold steady but amassing large Jan 2015 of FXE with said strike, knock on wood.
And we look ahead to this week, the FED and the oh holy Friday payrolls, first Friday of every US month we get that Holy Grail of a economic indicator. We continue to contend, the paltry US #’s highlighted again by this weeks durable good have a seasonal impact out of line with the ascension in bulk US data that first positioned the Fed’s June hike to come into focus and pummeled the EURO. Not to mention, Greece, deadlines, precedent and QE, American style in EURO, light years away from a rate hike. We own the June and January pouts on the FXE shorting one hell of a swing, risk / reward. This is a mother trade which last weeks move allows us to firm a balls PLAY and also while counter intuitive so many are short, squeezes at some of the suckers that donor have the chops for this game. Now there were some big winners this week, namely goggle, face book and Netflix, so why wouldn’t we buy five calls a week out ahead of Apple earnings this Monday? Answer is we would ! Short-term play, Apple trades up post earnings before and eventual sell off.
Oh Apple, it’s good to be the first to a spot, say I phones, the China #’/s are crazy and bloated the first wave has come however Apple typically, these days has a jump and there’s a NasDaq trend / waver in play. Something for the heroin players out there.
This is a HUGE week, stay here for the cut plays, scrapes and $’s.
2nd week of April with economic indicators, PPI, weekly JC’s some garbage European indicators (joking) did little to change our positions. Our oracle the “O” has set the 1.05 / 1.10 range before the this weeks FED and this range has played suit. The week before last bolstered the closer side of this range.
We remain convinced the euro moves lower hitting parity before the year-end. We’re short Chinese equities now at a seven-year peak after hard on new stimulus actually traded lower. We’re at a breaking point with stimulus, still have to get paid off it, Bernanke invented it bless his collegiate focus on US depression tackling PhD’s, straight liquid western capitalism, it’s smart, but not for everyone, especially the Chinese. The smartest guys in the room maybe there’s something to be said about assimilation when it relates to markets, you’re a newborn steroid gone, done, can I get a Dom “it.”
Stimulus somewhere is stimulus everywhere, you saw our last delta European stocks continue to go crazy in the early throngs of American quantitative easing across the pond. Here’s my Carrie Bradshaw GDD (Delta) moment, “So the question asks, would there have been a holocaust with an ECB?”
So we’ve had two stimuli plays over the past three to six months accordingly, Japanese and now EURO (HEDJ). Remember on this site we trade options primarily on ETF’s 20% straight stocks / options. So whom has stimulus benefited?
“Shooting fish in barrel.” Is how one friend and fellow options trader described trading since QE in America post 2008’s great recession. The point is bad news and there was a ton of it became good news for stocks, still is and that’s a big science remover coupled with the most transparent FED ever known, $ homy.
So many of these options traders in equities called him “Uncle Ben” always to rescue of our poor lot from nightly rice.
Yellen is a dove worth mentioning briefly as not to be too fooled (she is also a mental tool to facilitate pre mature ejaculation). The US economic engine still sneezes and the world gets an economic cold. There are two recent events that espouse globalism’s maturation and might. On the 1 hand we see how US blue chip earnings suffer as a result of a stronger dollar but bad news is still good news, so shake it off swiftly. The other example is Fast & Furious 7, the 7th installment got a death boost racing to a billion dollars worldwide in less than two weeks. Holy Fuke! Movies are still not free. Would you rather be a top actor or musician this century? F&F7, 1 billion? Wow, that’s globalization as more than half of that # is generated outside the United States. These are still net positives, look….
The US is still the worlds reserve currency like it or not.
See we are a young nation relative but when it comes to global economies amidst a bursting a full-blown capitalism ejaculation in the worlds largest populace, we are the OB-1, not so young, we are the elders providing the best large scale example out there taking in every factor available certainly corruption, and that might be sad for some readers. And we eschew for the most part politics. HOWEVER and this is a big however the CNY stock market with all their problems structurally and idiotically the ace of spades stimulus doesn’t’ work SO maybe the stimulus steroids have run it’s course. Makes sense it worked for five years, then bled American cues amidst confusion regarding exactly what the fuck to do. Japan, euro, and finally those smart Chinese AND, I think they sunk it. You can’t have it both ways play all sides old aphorisms hold a strong place in speculative broad shouldered bets against emerging central banks. The fact of the matter is there is no inflation and US jobs remain myopically skewed depending on the hollering Edison’s amongst analysts from our most sought after trading ports / firms / funds.
We see a long curving, sharp decline in good paying jobs on top of more people, app's, algorithms and advanced "smart" shit. And that is the scientific fact we’ll have to trade for one day. The retirement play. I think we see a comeback, a few years from now the incumbents will take credit not knowing the damage that was reversed with precedent, and we’ll ROLL one last time, for the ages,. But the change and drain will render space, people and technologically properly priced under hard to address political conversations, markets will not be sympathetic and that’s unfortunate. A world of gamblers in the face of anything to do outside of this is disturbing maybe Huxley was even more on point than we could’ve imagined, the writing was on the wall at least to him back then. Unless u stay happy and senseless then there’s a gift of earth, time, people and with that being said here's some more on our same picks.
First off this Chinese stimulus that just reversed a 300 point delving to match on the bull Monday is that, steroids, we’re short Chinese equities as of 4/15, FXI is the symbol, buy puts on this contracts six months out with a strike $44. Like Regan said markets go up and down this has been up meaning since we bought straight out PUTS Chinese in the second week of April gave the draft of decline of it’s shelves in a relatively calm week which most will be barring big jobs #, the FED or unforeseen geo-political chaos traded higher. Also We’re still short TUR aka Turkish emerging markets as well as Brazilian equities. Currency continues the game and our hefty Sunday bail out thousand star plays, euro will hit parity, and it will hit this year remains, “tit.”