Ladies and gentlemen welcome to GDD our financial wing sharing our thoughts and of course wagers in the world’s biggest casino why ever bet on football? First off money must now be managed actively, gone our the days of balance, add, sit and hold the world is simply too dynamic. I love it.
Secondly, this website will help you navigate the tumultuous waters of managing your money. This is geared towards the more seasoned investor but hey even Skeetah Lee made 5 G’s on our summer Delta / oil play / call. Typically we’ll share our options plays as well macro factors shaping our financial world.
First off, we’re heaviest FXE, this is a EURO short, we’ve been buying 100 calls out six months in two separate contracts starting this past fall, again this New Year. The old axiom money goes where it’s treated best is the ultimate driver the holy grail of all finance, interest rates, they will go up sooner here then there, bottom line. GDD is going further than most websites out there calling for a June 24th parity party. Further, stimulus somewhere = stimulus everywhere, that being said with the blessing of the trust rear view mirror into our own US equities, top side heavy, this US rally was PAID for and now we see American style QE being enacted in Europe and Japan. We’ve been long DJX as well as HEDJ which is the EFT we buy calls on (LONG European equities and Japan accordingly).
These stocks high’s in Europe will continue and japan, got long, remember stimulus somewhere is stimulus everywhere. How else could US equities set record high’s with zero inflation IR’s at all time, historic lengthy lows, displaced jobs, non-existent jobs, oil’s collapse and stubbornly low GDP, unemployment’s first cousin, how can it be? PAID for and it had to be done, this is the world we created, the FED. The new world’s own “nifty fifty” in every major index, JPY< EUR< USD can borrow money or free and buy back their own stock (see: GE last week). The rich get richer and the greater basic needs of the many are met, the world goes on. Why shouldn’t you profit?
Also we’re short Turkish emerging markets (TICKER: TUR) this is due to mighty geo-political risk / unrest, both internal / external, coming election and civil unrest ahead of, not to mention poor back drop of economic fundamentals and the Pope putting them to their admonishment on blast last night. This is a strong play we typically buy calls again six-eight months out enacting strikes at time of purchase in this case a five spot over the underlying ETF’s current settle.
Brazil, we’re also today getting back into our (Ticker: BZQ) Brazilian equities short, the once high flying “miracle economy” is ripe for a MAJOR setback. They are new to raw capitalism, and as commodities sour, the driver of their economy, the politics are getting messy, not stable and for this reason, we are short BZQ again today. They have an emerging debt crisis mad conflict of interests at the highest level of their government which weighs heavy for a further erosion of their equities market even at these levels. In bed with oil, do some research! And empower your profits. The call options here tend towards cowboy level a bit, wide gaps between bid’s / offer’s little open interest so if it’s more comfortable to get long simply the ETF please do. Important to be apart of what we see as a deteriorating situation in Brazil inside an utter confounding, confusing government pickle.
In the spirit of our six month long broad USD rally, we’re also short the GBP. This has been way up and we still expect a heavy downside for the GBP. A big election coming up in the UK which adds to the diverging albeit small measures of inflation against the US, inflation, everyone’s looking for inflation. Today in the US we have retail sales and March PPI we expect US numbers namely jobs against last month to improve as most of the country comes out of an epic winter of cold and snow. Lastly UVXY, our favorite play here at GDD. It’s again cheap, watch the VIX, if that even kisses ten we’ll buy the options which are very liquid and narrow. This is a great instrument / ultimate hedge to protect your wealth against seismic shifts. Anyone over the age of 60 should be familiar with this tool, actually fifty, think of it as cheap insurance that's all, it's a scary world. The miracle of this rally over the past few years for traders re; equities are bad news is good news. Now the questions beckon, is good news bad for the economy? We say yes, not yet, but remember the taper tantrum? Not at first, but as we get into early may we believe this will be the case as IR begin to finally normalize. We also like Pandora ahead of the Spotify IPO for a fun play.
Thanks guys have a great day and remember like the 10 year at the old CBOT back in 1984, if you trade it they will come…..