Thursday, October 25, 2012

Subject: State of the Race, October 25

DC in da house baby baby - this from a guy on the inside, called the last 4 correct - dems should re joice in the fact that this is his updated forecast

your welcome, don t fret >

> Obama 282 – Romney 256 …. > > See map (link)... > > Adjustments made for apportionment in NE and ME….

> > > >

Romney leads in RCP average polls 47.8-47.1, (www.realclearpolitics.com) > > Romney leads in likely voter polls 50-47 (gallup) > > Obama leads at Intrade 62.5% to 37.6% trending Obama….. > > > > Within the margin of error : CO,FL,IA,MI,NV,NH,NC,OH,PA,VA,WI.

> > > >

The only states truly still in play: > > Colorado > > Ohio > > Wisconsin > > New Hampshire > > > > As of tonight…. > > Obama takes: > > Iowa > > Michigan > > Nevada > > New Hampshire > > Ohio > > Pennsylvania > > Wisconsin

> > > >

Romney takes: > > Florida > > Colorado > > Virginia > > North Carolina

> > > >

Interesting takeaways: > > >>Major storm/hurricane due to hit the Eastern Seaboard on election day, now likely to cause power outages and voting interruptions…lower voter turnout should help Romney, but enough to change? Pennsylvania? > > >>Still on track for a popular vote win by Romney and an electoral win by Obama…. > > >>Obama’s firewall holding in Ohio, New Hampshire and Wisconsin, his last lines of defense… > > >>North Carolina moved off RCP map from “lean Romney” to tossup; ---Romney hangs on here and RCP status change was from an outlier poll. > > >>Colorado is extremely tight, within 1% and will go late into the night at this juncture, but it doesn’t matter who wins here. > > >>Still no evidence whatsoever to support a Romney win in IA, MI , PA, NV. Romney has never polled ahead in the aggregates at any time in any of these states. > > >>New Hampshire tight within 1% and will go late into the night with CO….. > > >>Romney now looking okay in Virginia and Florida.

> > > > > > What has to happen for Romney to win? > > > >

1). Take for granted that Romney holds on to win in Colorado. And either > > 2). Romney steals Ohio from Obama. Technically, Ohio is every bit as troublesome as WI,MI,NV,PA,IA in that Mitt has never polled ahead of Obama at any time here. However, Obama beat McCain by 4.6% in 2008; less than the national average, and Bush carried it in 2000, 2004. Still,, NONE of the aggregates show a SINGLE poll with Romney ahead in the Buckeye state, and intrade forecasts a 60% probability of an Obama win. > > OR > > 3). Romney runs a less probable, back door route, winning NH and WI i/l/o Obama. Same statistical problems in Wisconsin as there are in Ohio, let’s hope there are a lot of voters in Janesville.

> > > > Right now, we’re sitting on a horribly close defeat. Suggestions, anyone? > > > > With no movement in Mitt’s favor in Ohio or Wisconsin, the biggest wild card right now is the storm……..

1 comment:

carl easton said...

#gobarak