Tuesday, August 09, 2011

Stocks, the Gold Rush, hard work and Lexington Basketball

Stocks, Tuesday, Golden arches, hard work and Lexington basketball.

Good morning people, and Happy meal Tuesday, if you can learn to love, and I mean really love Tuesday life will come easy. Now my faithful readers let me start with the stock market down almost 700 points yes. As I said a few days ago this is the great recession, OK, half of the great depression. We had a trick rally ala 1931-32; the fundamentals are not there, recovery like a 12-step program is not an overnight phenomenon. And all eyes are on the Fed today but really WTF can they do? These things needs time to wok themselves up. I still wish regionally they split up BOA back in MA back into Shawmut, Bay Bank, Cambridge Savings etc. When will we learn? And the thing of it is, is that the 80’s for instance when companies got too big and out of there expertise among other problems didn't happen that long ago. I once said we race to forget the past in a college poem about fur coats and remote controls in the USA and this is seemingly the same thing. markets are not as much irrational as they are ADD. The old I forgot to remember.

The fact remains that in 2012 there is and has been a precedent for everything we’re experiencing, and the caveat as always is for the most part. And the Fed unless it can speed up time to teleport us into lower employment and 5% GDP minimum is going to find itself struggling with the politics and public distaste of a slowing economy. God is it humbling to succumb to forces much stronger than you. OK so the Fed today, it’s always in the statement, the minutes the obtuse words that follows their decision to do nothing. Yes, they can add further stimulus and we thought IR’s went low following the Internet bubble, pre world wart II levels I’d say on the phone all day to client’s and prospects. And now they’ve been zilch for what seems like forever. And there are old sayings, which BTW stick around because they hold merit, and it goes, money goes to where it’s treated best, how is our dollar where it is today based on that logic? And how much traction did the first three rounds of stimulus bring to our economy? I don’t believe too much, paving roads in NH, new projects to repair infrastructure our fine and dandy but not the recipe to bring us back. And time sadly is one of the biggest factors, and no one wants to hear that.

Oh and as the crisis drags on, we’ll get through it, but it’s tough to swallow, these bankers ran it into the ground only to get bailed out. Fuck it still bothers me when a loan is impossible to get in the hood, Terrence is followed when he walks around a CVS in Lexington and our jails our packed with crack heads from American ghetto’s meanwhile these guys with all the advantages which makes it worse in my eyes, JFK would agree, walk. What’s fair? What’s justice?
I don’t know, but the bad lessons that stemmed from our financial crisis should make every kid in America want to be a banker on Wall St. And that’s, for sure, the last thing we as a culture need. Hey let’s figure out new ways to gamble, let’s make a contract that trades futures on the futures of the mini Dow contract and also create new instruments to insure against our birdcage against those futures on top of the futures bets we make with the houses money. The money which our deposits from American homeowners, re cycling dollars and the old great theme of Wall St on the Danny Devito tip, let's trade, Other opr ordinary people’s Money.

So I moved from 5 to 10% of my vanguard into metals two weeks ago, this you see allows me not to cringe as markets crash because I get to see metals, gold SLVR, Platinum rally, it’s a smart hedge and every portfolio needs some exposure to metals at times as such and even at these grossly high levels. Gold goes to $2000 over 16 months. OK, futures are down again esp. ahead of the Fed, I urge them to resist further stimulus, and all moves or losses in the DOW going forward must be adjusted on a percentage basis. Because the bottom line is the markets are bigger than ever, and hastily more emotional. Back in the 80’s an 80-point move might spark dinner conversation. I remember asking the table what the hell was going on in the Middle East, and this question was met with blank stares and the proverbial, “think about something else Carl.”

I like the DOW falling here, I think the PE valuations make many a bargain to be had out there, and at my age, I’m fine as long as I can keep buying into these dips on the 401K tip and avoid tips from outsiders I should be OK. So many financial advisors out there are stuck in the 80’s, and those old rules just don’t apply in today’s world, you have to at least manage your portfolio a little bit and build. Gone are the days where you can stow away and never even check the balance until 30 years later. Out of sight out of mind is not the prescription for managing a healthy retirement, and it starts young which is ironic because no one I know has any savings.

And this is what happens, you A, marry rich after all, this is still America and B) I don’t know, I have no idea what’s going to happen to my generation, not a thrifty but a cribs generations kids of the 80’s and excess. A penny saved is a penny earned, 401K now people it’s never too late even now at 35, you can go 15% for another 20 years, and start now and hope for a further erosion in the major US equity indexes, you can profit and there are bargains out there today! I always dreamed I could write shit like this when I was a kid. I just wanted to be a businessman like my uncle Clayt once I realized Mike and myself were not going to the NBA. The only question for the markets as it relates to this sentence, is will the major rally happen in time to save Obama? I don’t know, it doesn’t look good right now but you never know. Moody’s told us are banks were healthy, so didn’t S & P when this wasn’t the case. Our history books told us the Indians and white men were great friends and celebrated Thanksgiving as a time of brother hood and sharing. Not the case. What can you believe? Oh shit, I got it, yourself! And I’m a handy cap with distraction and slow classes for life so I can say this with pride and founded merit labeled as if I was a bottle on a shelf a scotch bottle perhaps.

Markets go up and down and Obama needs to be FDR and more open with “welcoming the hatred” the unified hatred among powerful people when there money is threatened. Look at slavery, and what cost our country went to protect a lifestyle, I mean NewPort Rhode Island, those were summer homes back in the day, nuff said. That’s a life worth dying to protect no matter moral hazards. It’s amazing what people will do for money, protect what they have esp. If it came easy and was rigged.

Fuck that give me black underdogs that are poor and hungry and to quote Gordon Gecko, if you need a friend get a dawg. Stocks pair there losses today, please Ben Bernanke not more stimulus, and USA please, no more tea party. Lastly, the LHS footage will continue to be posted, and the makings of our 500 hours of work into this project continue to be molded. It’s a crazy story that LHS basketball, a stunning fall from a cherished institution within the confides of MA D1 scholastic athletics, may I say a hallowed program that’s been slashed and burned to rubble. And we’ve been there throughout to document this stunning collapse and also document a long golden era, and the success that came out of the tough regime and glittering banners that for decades signified Lexington basketball. I guess I’M the opposite of a sell out, I guess things in my life left such an impact as to not be left alone. We must fight, create, work hard and love the ones around us. And with that today I leave you with a poem, I wrote from re hab where ironically I spent my 21 st birthday after awaking from a coma after falling off the top of a car a little after 4AM in Milton MA, a dark time, I believe in angels.

Captains.

It is today I realized that I’m not a captain
Unable to conform to recognized leader standards
Just a fresh breath of air am I, for a captains sacred lung
Floating anonymously watching my song slowly being sung
Identifying personal shortcomings, humbling at best
Forgive me dear mother and father for I’m no better than the rest
Weakness arise as pressure surmount
Captains draw strength from pressure
Were we all captains once upon a day?
Has passing time slowly sifted most away?
It is to heaven I turn to find my place,
I give my world to the to the lord of heaven’s grace
You have given me breath and as long as I’m here
I will brunt the struggles until my purpose becomes clear
Our lord grants to some long aging life
Time is wisdom
And as times goes by one day I’ll see
All of the Captains that have surrounded me
A moment of clarity
Mom always told me not to be stubborn

CE 5/22/97


This was after they stripped me of my college captain status on the basketball team after my accident, like I said humbling at best.

"But I'm here now." Vivian, Pretty Women. (have a great day guys, gals, dolls)

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